DUH

I can't watch TV without being reminded of the ever-worsening news about America's failing in Iraq. Even Fox News is asking: "Why have we bungled this war so badly?" Right...how could experienced officials be so misguided and incompetent? It's not like the Bush administration doesn't have top officials who don't have any Soviet or Eastern European expertise. So have they applied anything they picked up on from the Cold War's end and aftermath? As strange as this may seem, especially given American penchant for ahistorical and compartmentalized treatment of its foreign affairs, a better understanding would have cautioned much of the US's Iraq folly. Consider the endemeic corruption that has engulfed Iraq and subverts efforts to rebuild the country, provide vital services, and improve lives of ordinary Iraqis. The single most incessant problem across the entire post-communist area is the public and private sector corruption that drains investment, slows growth, and disenthralls once enthusiastic "Westernizers" in even the most successful transition states. Look at Russia, it was chiefly disgust at the rampant criminalization during the 90's that created broad support for Putin's turn to despotic, state-corporatist policies. Building on the ruins of Socialism, since if this chaos and consequent anti-market, anti-democratic backlash was surely inevitable. Even advocates of "shock therapy", *cough* World Bank *cough*, now admit that rapid privatization of state industy and social services led to avoidable destruction and waste, impoverishment, polarization, and corruption. All over Eastern Europe and Central Asia crime and malfeasance fuel an anti-Western force in politics. Instead of using competence guided by real-world experience to establish a plan for Iraq, the administration used naivety fueled by ideology. Designing a utopian private healthcare system and computerizing the Baghdad stock exchange is a good idea? Meanwhile, the state was plundered, social services crashed, and the country quickly descended into chaos. Fuck, I can run this country. How do you overlook the painful post-communist experience, not just repeatedly, but magnify ALL the recent mistakes of transition politics and economics? Donald Rumsfeld so wisely said: "Stuff happens". Hell yes it does, Mr. Rumsfeld. Especially when an old system is destroyed with little regard for the difficult work of preparing a new one. Instead, you put blind faith in the indebtedness of the liberated mass and free market magic. The Bush administration has acknowledged its stupid mistake of dismatling the Iraqi army and dismissing thousands of experienced managers in a sweeping "de-Ba'athification". But we still await for a critique of the numerous other reconstruction failures like the deflection of millions of dollars from unsupervised rebuilding projects to the bribery and pay-offs that permeate everything from small business to nation politics? Hmmm? Oh nevermind.

Any long-tyrannized society can't adapt to Western economic and political models overnight. That's a give-in. Let's take a look at war-torn Bosnia, Kosovo, and even Tajikistan. There were many warnings when Bush 1 wanted to topple Saddam the first time around. What did Bush 2 not see? The likelihood of a Sunni-Shi'ite-Kurdish conflict? They should have looked at what happened between the Serbians, Croatians, and Bosnians after the collapse of Yugoslavia or the Pashtuns, Tajiks, and Uzbeks warlordism that came after the fall of the Soviet-backed government in Afghanistan. Bloodshed. There are just 2 post-communist dangers that weren't just overlooked, but completely ignored. More specifically the failure to see the consequences of sudden regime change in an area that does not have a single community or nationality and has many divisions in culture, region, and economy.


Face it, Iraq is like America's Chechnya. The Chechens fought the Russians between 1994 and 1996 and that conflict ended in a draw. They signed a cease fire and gave Chechnya de facto independence, but that did no good. The republic became a host to feuding clans, criminal gangs, and Islamic fundamentalism. Putin decided to reinvade after a series of attacks and hostage-takings in Russia. Chechnya today is nothing but a mephitic wound. It's society shattered. The Russians fear withdrawal because that would spur more separatism and bolder terrorist attacks. What connection am I trying to establish here? Corruption and criminalization debilitate stability and much less hopes for democracy. When rival parties are expelled by rival sectarian groups, with then break down into rival paramilitaries and gangs...warlordism transcends the religious or national cause. The opposition becomes so radicalized that yesterday's extremists are today's moderates and the odds of stabilizing that nation grow long. Chechnya is in a constant state of "normalization" like the Oakland Raiders are in a constant state of rebuilding. The occupiers become just as brutal as the insurgents, the ambitious youth seek life abroad, and the rest are nominally ruled by the occupiers. Iraq isn't this bad, but it's showing similarities. Iraq is also much more difficult to handle. America does not just have to abrogate a secessionist challenge and pacify a terrorist threat in a tiny, contingous republic, but build a stable and independent nation on the other side of the world. Shit I am tired. I will build on this later.